Both internal and Wall Street sales projections could prove too optimistic, however, considering the global idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis market was valued at $88 million in 2009 (nominal sales don’t recognize off-label RX use, but do underscore a market underserved due to a lack of approved products). Nonetheless, even with new growth drivers, such as Esbriet and other novel treatments in development, from LPA1 receptor antagonists to protein inhibitors, the combined U.S. and EU market for IPF is expected to climb no higher than about $462 million by 2017, according to industry analyst BioPortfolio.
As in Greek mythology, where Icarus ignored the warning of his father Daedalus, this unbridled optimism surrounding Esbriet runs significant risk of flying too close to the sun. Is hype outdistancing hope?
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Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.