Hurricane Alex Isn't BP's Only Worry These Days in Gulf Waters

BP plc (BP-$28.88) spokesperson Toby Odone acknowledged to reporters last week that the 45-ton blow-out preventer sitting atop the damaged Macondo wellbore was leaning, up to 15 degrees by some accounts.

We know little about the underlying geology of the spill site in the Gulf of Mexico, as BP has held that information close, claiming that it’s “proprietary” data. Scientists are clamoring for BP to publicly release geological survey data on the underlying “Lower Teriary” formations (rock layer formed 65 million to 250 million years ago). Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are streaming video feeds of high pressure columns of oil and gas bubbling up from fissures in the sea floor — which outside scientists fear could be flowing from stress fractures in the underground piping.

Could an already weakened sea bottom beyond the wellbore (eroded by up to 100,000 pounds per square inch of corrosive fluid pressure seeking escape upward from the leaks in the undersea piping) crack wide open like ice on a pond, spewing millions of additional barrels of oil into Gulf waters? Read More …

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

U.S. Drill Plan Impacts Transocean's Drilling Worldwide

Transocean’s (RIG - $52.00) ‘at-risk’ contract backlog from U.S. offshore Gulf operations was a nominal 6.4 percent, or $1.8 billion out of total company backlog of $27.9 billion as of June 1. However, should the Obama administration gain the upper hand in reinstating its deepwater drilling ban in offshore U.S. waters, profit-performance could be impacted on a global scale.

Read More ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

BP's Oil Spill Costs in Gulf Accelerating -- Next Stop: $3.0 Billion

British oil major BP (BP-$29.68) said response efforts toward the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico – including containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, and payment claims – had soared to approximately $2 billion so far, up from $450 million on May 13.

Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. expects the bill to rise to $3.5 billion by the time relief wells are scheduled to stop the flow of oil and gas from the sea floor in August.

Will BP bankruptcy talks resurface if the company can't turn the corner - and capture more oil than what's spilling into Gulf waters? Read More ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

BP Walking Plank to Insolvency?

As of June 14, BP (BP-$31.71) has paid out approximately $1.6 billion – spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to affected Gulf states, claims paid, and federal — in costs related to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, BP is financially vulnerable to substantial putative penalties, even without a showing of wrongdoing on its part.

BP shares have lost approximately $90 billion in value, or 51 percent, since the Deepwater Horizon accident touched off the Macondo field blowout in late April.

Cost to bond traders for five-year insurance protection against nonpayment (per contract covers $10 million in face value), better known as credit default swaps (CDSes) is soaring: the price to insure $10M in BP debt this morning was $575,000, up from $43,200 on April 22, the day the Transocean -leased semi-submersible drilling rig sank.

Insurance on BP’s one-year swaps is more expensive than for its five-year debt, another sign of the company’s alleged “short-term credit distress” risk. Is the U.K.-based oil major walking the plank to bankruptcy? Read More ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

What Do Supermodel Gisele Bündchen, Suntech Power, and Yingli Green Energy Have in Common?

Does anyone remember the good old days – back in 2007 and 2008 – when über-supermodel Gisele Bündchen demanded to be paid in euros? So keen was she on avoiding the US currency because of uncertainty over its strength…. Flash forward to 2010.

Suntech Power Holdings (STP-9.33) could see a 79 percent drop in profits if the euro establishes U.S$1.25 as a new ceiling – even with hedging efforts – according to a recent Bloomberg Businessweek interview with Barclays analysts.

That the falling euro has been difficult to manage is further underscored by recent efforts at solar-cell rival, Baoding-based Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE-$9.67):

Continue Reading at BNET ENERGY….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

BP Acting Like Three Stooges -- Why Not Learn From Them, Too?

For weeks BP and the White House had confidently told the American public that the oil spewing out of the busted wellbore from the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig was 5,000 barrels per day (210,000 gallons). An internal BP document, dated April 27, showed that number to be misleading. Rep. Ed Markey said at a House Natural Resources Committee meeting on May 26 that BP scientists actually thought the leak to be upwards of 14,000 bpd. Outside analysts estimate the daily spill rate could be much higher — up to 95,000 barrels, or nearly 4 million gallons!

"If at first you don't succeed, keep on suckin' til ya do suck seed!" ~ Curly

Is President Obama just "a victim of coicumstance?" With his poll numbers sinking — and no tangible evidence that BP is even close to plugging the spill — the Obama administration has turned to friends in Hollywood for help. Word has leaked that Avatar director James Cameron is now consulting with U.S. officials on possible solutions to the spill.

Instead of Cameron, maybe its time to call in Moe, Larry, and Curly: “At yer service, day or night, we do the job and do it right...”

View Three Stooges Video on How to Plug Oil Gusher ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

LDK Solar Forecasting Profitable 2010

LDK Solar (LDK-$5.10) believes firmer selling prices and falling production costs will help the wafer and module maker repair compressed margins in the next few quarters.

Despite market fears that demand would drop off after incentive cutbacks in essential European markets, such as Germany and Italy, come second-half 2010, chairman and CEO Xiaofeng Peng is calling for wafer and module shipments of 1.7 GW to 1.8 GW and 200 MW to 300 MW, up from 2009 year-ending estimates of 1.1 GW and 34 MW, respectively.

“The improvement in ASP trends throughout the year should allow us to expand our gross margin in the next few quarters,” said chief financial officer Jack Lai on the recent earnings call with investors. “Recent polysilicon feedstock prices reportedly below inventoried first-quarter costs of $65 per kilogram should help to boost gross margins in the next few quarters by as much as 300 basis points, up from the 15.7 percent posted in the first quarter.”

Will innovative manufacturing gains, such as increased throughput and conversion efficiency yields, help LDK avoid the commodity cliff being predicted for solar wafer makers by many semiconductor industry pundits? Read More ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Eurozone Currency Weakness is Latest Problem for Trina Solar and Other Chinese Module Makers

China-based Trina Solar (TSL-$15.73) is a module maker whose currency mismatches are overshadowing planned shipments of 750 MW to 800 MW for the whole of 2010 (year-on-year growth of 88 percent to 100 percent). The company has significant exposure to Europe, where it derives more than 80 percent of sales. Unfortunately, even active hedging efforts won’t shield its financials: approximately 60 percent of second-quarter euro exposure is covered at contract rates of $1.30-$1.40, according to chief financial officer Terry Wang.

Total earnings for 2010 could fall more than 84 percent, if the Euro averages less than $1.25, according to Barclays Capital analysts.

The company’s guidance for gross margin in second-quarter 2010 is in the high 20 percentages. With the euro settling below $1.20 in Monday’s trading, could Trina Solar and a host of other China-based solar manufacturers face margin compressions worse than even those forecasted by Barclays Capital? Read More ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Pivotal Meeting for Novartis' MS Drug Gilenia Next Week

The FDA has extended the review period for Novartis AG’s (NVS-$45.97) investigational multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Gilenia by three months.

Efficacy, however, is unlikely the point of contention. Regulators and physicians alike are likely concerned on scaling the balance of efficacy and the drug’s long-term safety profile. Similar to Merck KgaA’s cladribine, Gilenia interferes with the proliferation of certain white blood cells, particularly circulating lymphocytes (T cells and B-cells), which are thought to be involved in the immune-mediated and inflammatory pathological process of MS. The immune suppression activities of both experimental drugs theoretically could leave MS-treated patients vulnerable to opportunistic infections and cancers.

The Advisory Committee meeting is still planned for June 10 to discuss the benefit/risk profile of Gilenia. Assuming no new evidentiary surprises with safety, will the drug hit U.S. pharmacy shelves by year end? Read More….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Financial Transparency and Change Coming to LDK Solar? Thing Again.

That LDK Solar (LDK-$5.55), the world’s largest producer of multicrystalline solar wafers, kept up with most of its peers and blew past consensus sales and earnings estimates for first-quarter 2010 wasn’t too much of a surprise. The anticipated reduction of Feed-in-Tariffs (FIT) in Germany come July prompted customers to accelerate photovoltaic (PV) installations before that solar subsidy became financially less attractive.

Quarterly revenue rose 22.7 percent year-on-year to $347.6 million and reported net income was $7.2 million, or six cents a share, handily beating forecasts of $325.8 million and share-net of a penny, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Given an improving revenue and earnings picture, will the integrated solar cell maker finally move to improve its balance sheet health – as it had repeatedly promised to do numerous times in quarters past? Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Worried About Man-Made Disasters? Avoid Draw Muhammad Day

May 20 is being celebrated around the globe -- by infidels -- as "Draw Muhammad Day."

In honor of Draw Muhammad Day, we offer up this humble quote attributed to he who the fanatically devoted kill -- in his name -- and a shot at martyrdom and 72 virgins: "Worship God as though you see Him, and if you cannot see Him, then indeed He sees you." This quote is attributed to which religious leader:

Moses ___

Muhamad ___

Jesus ___

BP Finger-Points Blame on Transocean

Although the investigation into the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is still in the early stages, standard industry practice is such that unless BP can prove gross negligence by Transocean (RIG-$66.10), it and minority interest-holder Anadarko Petroleum bear ultimate liability for clean-up and recovery costs for the environmental damage resulting from the spill, not to mention likely punitive damage payments to all affected parties, such as fishery and tourism industries.

In predictable fashion, the finger pointing has already begun. Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

National Enquirer Offers Million Dollar Bounty For Alleged Obama Love Tryst Video

In March 2010, average weekly print circulation — newsstand and subscription — of the National Enquirer declined year-over-year 16.1 percent to 732,000 copies. By comparison, total paid and verified weekly circulation averaged about one million in 2007, according to media observer Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC).

Declining circulation isn't just endemic to the Enquirer. Overall average paid daily circulation for the top 25 dailies fell 8.7 percent year-over-year for the six months through March, according to ABC. Weekday sales at the New York Times (NYT) and the Washington Post (WPO) fell 8.5 percent and 13.1 percent to 951,063 and 578,482 copies, respectively. In fact, only the The Wall Street Journal managed to eke out a gain, of about 0.5 percent.

What the Enquirer needs to pump up weekly tabloid sales is a good scandal – say, on the order of John Edwards and his love child. The Enquirer’s latest investigative controversy is a rehash of an alleged presidential cheating scandal between then Senator Barack Obama and a former campaign aide, Vera Baker (circa. 2004). The paper has offered a $1 million reward for alleged security video footage of the two entering a Wahington DC hotel together.

Can the Enquirer survive in the age of media-savvy competitors like TMZ and Perez Hilton? "Enquirering Minds Want to Know!"

Post Update: An "open-minded" reader -- (after looking at his blogroll links I suspect he probably thinks that the grand social experiments engineered by the likes of Chairman Mao and Stalin - in which millions were either slaughtered outright or starved to death very slowly -- were wonderful attempts towards the utopian plain of equality) -- had this assessment of my Nat'l Enquirer blog posting:

Ted K: I'm ashamed to say I had you on my blogroll. Not after this trash. Good luck keeping your blog going with this type "fair."

Me: Hey, Ted! What do you call a Muslim woman who previously favored western-style clothing, but after having an arm chopped off by the Iranian religious police only wears a burqa?

Answer: "Educated!

There you go -- How's that for transparency and fairness? Oh, my mistake -- only President Obama has a lock on those virtues.

Read More at BNET MEDIA > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

More Calls For CEO Blankenship's Resignation at Massey Energy

It has become a ritual at Massey Energy’s (MEE-$35.77) annual shareholder meeting for interest groups to stage protests and call for the resignation of chairman and chief executive Don Blankenship. Environmentalists and union activists have long alleged that Blankenship habitually fights against needed regulation of strip mining (gutting mountain tops for coal removal) and enforcement of safety rules that protect the miners – a disdain motivated by his desire to maximize the coal operator’s profits, according to his detractors.

An explosion at a West Virginia coal mine last month killed 29 miners and is expected to interrupt metallurgical coal shipments and sales through year-end 2010. Could Blankenship face additional calls to resign – this time from members of the board of directors?

Read More at BNET ENERGY > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

"Spill, Baby, Spill" - Or Not, Says BP

British energy giant BP ($49.78) initially accepted responsibility for the April 5 explosion aboard the offshore drilling rig Deepwater Horizon. However, with efforts to shut down the well failing, and more than 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) of oil per day still spewing out of the broken pipe – and recovery costs climbing to $6 million a day and beyond – the British energy giant might be having second thoughts about paying all “legitimate and objectively verifiable claims.” In television interviews this week, BP executives noted that the disaster, in which 11 workers died, wasn’t directly BP’s fault, as drilling contractor Transocean was operating the rig on its behalf.

The spill is disastrous to the locals in coastal towns. The fishing industry in Louisiana could be impacted to the tune of $2.5 billion, and Florida’s tourism losses are expected to total around $3 billion, according to Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune.

How much will this spreading oil slick – potentially rivaling the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill into Prince Edward Sound, Alaska – ultimately cost BP, less insurance? Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Can Bristol Myers' Drug Pipeline Save Company?

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-$25.31) derives almost 47 percent of its revenue from two key products: Plavix (sales of $6.1 billion in 2009), a platelet aggregation inhibitor for the prevention of stroke, heart attack and vascular disease, and the anti-hypertension drug Avapro ($1.3 billion). Chief executive officer Lamberto Andreotti says the company’s ambitious go-to-market model will mitigate expected erosion in sales and share-net earnings from the lost marketing exclusivity of these cardiovascular drugs come 2012. Read More >….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Forget Fed Loans -- Think Cool Cup Holders at GM

General Motors (GM) denies a deliberate intent to mislead the American public with recent televised advertisements, countering that terms of its accelerated repayment of government loans terms had been fully disclosed. To the contrary, having forfeited the confidence of the American public when it relied on taxpayer funding for its long-term survival, the company is desperate to improve its image — and sell more cars. Read More >….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Could Bristol-Myers' Growth Flatline Post-Plavix?

In 2009, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-$24.50) derived almost one-third of its total sales, or $6.1 billion, from the blood-clot inhibitor Plavix (clopidogrel), co-marketed with French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Can growth from existing drugs help mitigate revenue and earnings lost to generic copycats when the drug maker's best-selling cardiovascular drug loses market exclusivity come 2012? Read More >….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Novartis' Search In a Post-Diovan World Continues

Findings from ASPIRE (Aliskiren Study in Post-MI Patients to Reduce Remodeling), one of 14 trials evaluating Novartis AG’s (NVS-$51.97) Tekturna’s potential benefits beyond blood pressure reduction, showed that although addition of the hypertensive drug did help limit changes to the heart’s shape and function in patients after heart attack (post-myocardial infarction), the results were not statistically significant.

The collective findings in the post-MI population do not support dual-agent suppression of Tekturna with other drugs inhibiting the renin-angiotensin system at this time, concluded Dr. Solomon, presenter of ASPIRE trial.

Going forward, what does this mean for Novartis’ attempt to boost sales when blockbuster BP drug Diovan loses market exclusivity? Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Talk of Oil Drilling at Chesapeake Energy Nothing But Gas

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK-$23.50) near-term outlook calls for a shift in some production to oil and natural gas liquids, such as propane and butane. The number two natural gas producer will initially focus drilling activities on unconventional shale prospects, such as its holdings in the Granite Wash formations of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

In the various Granite Wash plays of the Anadarko Basin, Chesapeake is the largest leasehold owner with approximately 190,000 net acres and is also the most active driller and largest producer. Speaking at recent energy conferences, chairman Aubrey McClendon identified particularly prolific gas- and oil-rich areas — with reservoirs potentially loaded with upwards of 90 barrels per million cubic feet — that have become the two highest rate-of-return plays in the company.

What McClendon, crowned “Mr. Gas” in a 2008 Fortune article, forgot to mention, however, is that profitable retrieval of these oily reservoirs will require much higher natural gas prices.

Read More: Chesapeake Energys’ Move to Oil Needs Higher Gas Prices

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.