Could Bristol-Myers' Growth Flatline Post-Plavix?

In 2009, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-$24.50) derived almost one-third of its total sales, or $6.1 billion, from the blood-clot inhibitor Plavix (clopidogrel), co-marketed with French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Can growth from existing drugs help mitigate revenue and earnings lost to generic copycats when the drug maker's best-selling cardiovascular drug loses market exclusivity come 2012? Read More >….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Novartis' Search In a Post-Diovan World Continues

Findings from ASPIRE (Aliskiren Study in Post-MI Patients to Reduce Remodeling), one of 14 trials evaluating Novartis AG’s (NVS-$51.97) Tekturna’s potential benefits beyond blood pressure reduction, showed that although addition of the hypertensive drug did help limit changes to the heart’s shape and function in patients after heart attack (post-myocardial infarction), the results were not statistically significant.

The collective findings in the post-MI population do not support dual-agent suppression of Tekturna with other drugs inhibiting the renin-angiotensin system at this time, concluded Dr. Solomon, presenter of ASPIRE trial.

Going forward, what does this mean for Novartis’ attempt to boost sales when blockbuster BP drug Diovan loses market exclusivity? Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Talk of Oil Drilling at Chesapeake Energy Nothing But Gas

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK-$23.50) near-term outlook calls for a shift in some production to oil and natural gas liquids, such as propane and butane. The number two natural gas producer will initially focus drilling activities on unconventional shale prospects, such as its holdings in the Granite Wash formations of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

In the various Granite Wash plays of the Anadarko Basin, Chesapeake is the largest leasehold owner with approximately 190,000 net acres and is also the most active driller and largest producer. Speaking at recent energy conferences, chairman Aubrey McClendon identified particularly prolific gas- and oil-rich areas — with reservoirs potentially loaded with upwards of 90 barrels per million cubic feet — that have become the two highest rate-of-return plays in the company.

What McClendon, crowned “Mr. Gas” in a 2008 Fortune article, forgot to mention, however, is that profitable retrieval of these oily reservoirs will require much higher natural gas prices.

Read More: Chesapeake Energys’ Move to Oil Needs Higher Gas Prices

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Solar Module Acquisition Better for LDK Solar or Chairman?

By controlling each node of the manufacturing value chain — and locating its new polysilicon plant adjacent to its existing low-cost (wages) wafer facility in Xinyu City, China — LDK Solar (LDK-$8.43) was confident it could reduce overall production costs, improve product quality (such as conversion efficiency rates), and enhance its core competitiveness in an increasingly crowded (and commodity-like) market for solar wafers.

In 2009, aggregate annualized production was about 6,000 metric tons — significantly lower than forecasted nameplate capacity of 16,000 metric tons. In addition to construction delays, costs for the silicon plant ha approached $2 billion — well above the forecasted budget of $1.2 billion.

In the fourth-quarter of 2009, LDK reported wafer average selling prices (ASP) of US$0.83 per watt, down from US$2.24 per watt in 2007. The significant decline in wafer prices forced the company to write down the carrying values of its inventories by almost US$500 million in the last two years.

Despite its inability to capture wafer cost advantages through the ownership of more of its upstream supplier chain, chairman and chief executive officer Xiaofeng Peng insists LDK should move downstream. In February LDJ purchased a crystalline module manufacturing plant owned by Peng for $21.5 million.

Is the decision best for LDK or Peng? Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Cabot Oil Still Has "Gas" in its Future

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG-$39.63) is showing early success from its Haynesville Shale assets located in East Texas, with its first horizontal well currently producing at 19 million cubic feet (Mmcf) per day, according to chairman and chief executive officer Dan Dinges.

Cabot’s asset portfolio is spread principally between low-risk/long reserve-life (27 years) Appalachian assets (Marcellus Shale) and high-volume/rapid-payout (estimated reserve life of 13 years) prospects in the Gulf Coast (East and Southeast Texas). Although most of its of its 2010 capital budget is geared toward expanding takeaway pipeline capacity and ramping up production at its core Marcellus holdings in Susquehanna county, PA, management has still budgeted about $181 million of capital funds for drill-bit activity on Haynesville Shale prospects in East Texas.

Dinges said at a recent energy conference that the company expects drilling results from three other Haynesville Shale wells during this quarter.

But other stuff is happening that could derail the company’s ambitious drill program this year.

Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Chesapeake Energy Looks Toward 'Oily' Future

“The economics just compel you to look for oil rather than natural gas right now,” Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK-$24.09) chairman and chief executive officer Aubrey McClendon told attendees at Hart Energy’s annual Developing Unconventional Gas conference in Fort Worth last week.

McClendon admitted on the company’s February earnings call that $5.00 per million BTU pricing on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) equates to $3.50 gas at the wellhead, once differentials like gathering and compression costs are included in the cost calculus. “Even $3.50 gas at the wellhead does not create enough cash flow in the industry to maintain today’s drilling price — even for the best-managed shale plays,” he said.

Why is the nation’s second largest natural gas producer suddenly priming the drill-bit for oil? Continue Reading > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Denbury Resources Asset Sale Doesn't Change Outlook

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR-$17.95) announced its intent to sell certain of its oil and natural gas properties (acquired in the merger with Encore Acquisition) for $900 million to Quantum Resources Management, a privately held Houston-based company. As expected, the properties to be sold are located primarily located in the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

The leader in carbon dioxide-based, tertiary-recovery of aging oil fields said it would use the proceeds to pay down debt acquired in the $4.5 billion acquisition of Encore.

Although welcome news, the post-merged company would still be left with long-term debt of some $3 billion, or almost 40 percent of total capitalization. In addition, there is limited pipeline infrastructure to support planned CO2 -recovery operations in acquired Rocky Mountain assets. What now? Read More >….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Making Commercial Sen$e of Genzymes' apo-B Inhibitor Mipomersen

Mipomersen is an antisense inhibitor of apo-B protein synthesis, the first drug of its type. Genzyme (GENZ-$51.83) intends to first seek approval in the U.S. and Europe for mipomersen in those patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH), a rare genetic disorder affecting one in a million people, in the first half of 2011.

Investigators believe mipomersen could be a valuable addition to the drugs used in the management of HoFH and could prove useful in the management of other high-risk, patients with severe hypercholesterolemia (resistant to existing lipid-lowering drugs)

Recent trial results, however, have raised questions about mipomersen’s safety and tolerability, as 76 percent and 12 percent of patients in the mipomersen-treated group had injection-site reactions and increased liver enzymes of three times or more the upper limit of normal (with MRI findings of increased intra-hepatic fat content too).

Two experts on antisense inhibitors of apo-B protein synthesis, R. Dermot Neely (Royal Victoria Infirmary, England) and John J Kastelein, (Chairman of the Department of Vascular Medicine at the Academic Medical Centre Amsterdam), share their insights on the commercial prospects of mipomersen. Continue Reading > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Denbury Resources Profiting from Greenhouse Gases

Denbury Resources (DNR-$16.87) has completed its $4.5 billion purchase of Encore Acquisition Corp.

The Plano-based oil company makes its money by injecting carbon dioxide into depleted petroleum fields to recover lost production, and the integration of Encore will more than double the potential of its enhanced oil recovery (EOR) assets.

Anticipated tertiary production from Encore properties in the Rocky Mountains (Montana and Wyoming) fits nicely into Denbury’s overall EOR program, said chief executive officer Phil Ryhoek, and will provide production growth in 2015 and beyond, about the time when the company’s Gulf Coast tertiary fields are expected to hit production peaks.

Can Denbury Resources profit from greenhouse gas emissions? Read More > ,,,,

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Making Commercial Sense of Isis Pharmaceuticals' Cholesterol Drug Mipomersen

Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS-$10.31) sold development and marketing rights of its flagship antisense drug mipomersen to Genzyme in January 2008. Mipomersen, a first-in-class apo-B synthesis inhibitor, works by decreasing the production of apo-B, a protein critical to the synthesis and transport of LDL and VLDL cholesterol — the “bad” lipids involved in the buildup of plaque in the arteries and the development of heart disease — through the bloodstream.

Whether mipomersen rises to $1 billion-plus blockbuster status or remains a niche drug with $250 million peak sales will depend on how the FDA feels about approving the drug for use in a broad pool of high-risk patients (refractory to existing lipid-lowering therapy) with uncontrolled LDL.

Continue Reading > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Bearish on China Sunergy

With its domestic market becoming even more crowded with silicon, solar cell, and module makers, China Sunergy (CSUN-$3.91) is looking abroad to stabilize margins. In first-quarter 2010, management expects domestic shipments to be only 35 percent of forecasted 68 - 75 MW (down from 56 percent of total 2008 shipments).

Adding scale and market share — at least near-term — will pressure margins. It is difficult to comprehend how recent downstream acquisitions of solar module makers will stabilize margins — as predicted by chairman Lu. Positioning itself as a player in new markets, like Ontario and Italy, will require even more aggressive price breakpoints: Blended ASP during the fourth quarter declined year-on-year 57.5 percent to US$1.26 per watt. Read More >….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Anchors Away for Crude Carriers' Common Stock?

Crude Carriers (CRU-$16.30) is using all of its approximately $254 million in proceeds from its recent IPO to immediately purchase one 2006-built Suezmax vessel, the Miltiadis M II, at a price of $71.25 million. This is to be followed by the acquisition of two new-built, very-large crude carriers (VLCCs) for $96.5 million each, with expected delivery dates in late March and June 2010.

After hitting eight-year lows, spot rates for most VLCC and Suezmax carriers reversed in the fourth quarter. Is now a good time for a new oil tanker venture to set sail?

Read More at BNET Energy > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

No Fun in Sun at Solarfun Power Holdings

Solarfun Power Holdings’ (SOLF-$6.54) finance officer Gareth Kung stressed on the fourth-quarter earnings call that 50 percent of shipments to German-based customers were, in fact, installed in other European end markets. Contrary to expressed optimism, however, megawatt volumes installed in these other markets may prove too small to offset lost sales in Germany through (at a minimum) 2012.

In particular, proposals to decelerate subsidies or delayed feed-in-tariff initiatives in markets outside Germany signal less – not more – visibility in growth for channel demand of Solarfun’s PV modules: Continue Reading > …

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Chesapeake Energy's "Clean and Green" Campaign Fails to Convince Critics

If environmentalists have their way, the flame in Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK-$23.79) “green” logo would be snuffed out. Critics howl that the energy company’s drilling method (like all shale exploration companies), known as hydraulic fracturing, used to extract its gas deposits is toxic.

Thanks to dead cows, water-well explosions, and contaminated groundwater from drilling, Chesapeake Energy’s effort to market natural gas as an environmentally friendly option to “filthy coal” hasn’t gained much traction lately. Now comes word of another public relations disaster for the company: its wastewater wells apparently caused a series of small earthquakes at the Dallas/Fort Worth airport.

Read More at BNET Energy > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Burger King Launching New Assault on Breakfast

Burger King (BKC-$19.60) has yet to win any of the breakfast sandwich battles – whether they be against McDonald’s or Dunkin Donuts. Management is hoping that the national rollout of Seattles “Best Coffee” (lesser-known line of Starbuck’s premium-coffee brands) in its U.S. stores and launches of BK’s Breakfast Muffin sandwich and Breakfast Bowl will attract traffic to the otherwise struggling fast-food chain.

With $1 billion in debt maturing and comparable same-store sales still in free-fall, the company needs to put more than just flame-broiled sizzle and discounted sales of its signature Whopper sandwiches on its balance sheet.

Continue Reading at BNET Food > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Novartis Crazy to Buy Vanda Pharma?

Shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA-$11.80) rallied 15 percent in the last two days after rumors resurfaced that partner Novartis AG might be interested in a takeover. The drug maker has a total market capitalization of $328 million – less than the value of the companies' drug pact, worth an estimated $465 million. Whether a merger makes financial sense, however, will ultimately depend on the sales performance on Vanda's drug of mutual interest -- the schizophrenia treatment Fanapt.

Is Fanapt more than just another “me-too” second-generation antipsychotic? Continue Reading > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Hey Burger King, Where's Herb?

Comparable same store sales at Burger King (BKC-$17.90) operations in North America (more than 7,500 stores) declined three percent versus a year ago.

Consumers are eating out less in this economy — and when dining out they are choosing less expensive restaurants. With the price-value proposition shifting to the value side, Burger King needs to figure out how to retain customers — and their loyalty – in an industry dominated by burger pricing wars.

Patrons at a BK restaurant in Concord, NH, keep coming back for more – as much for a singing server as the food. Of course, such an inexpensive loyalty program makes no sense to management: and Chuck Murphree was told to do it management’s way – no more singing.

Maybe management would prefer another "Where's Herb?" disaster (circa 1985)? Read More > ....






Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

First Solar Forgets an Understanding Is NO Signed Deal

Chief executive Rob Gillette confidently predicted on the fourth-quarter 2009 earning call that demand for larger-scale utility projects, particularly in North America, India, and China, will provide sustainable, long-term growth for First Solar’s (FSLR-$109.00) products. But lack of financing, planned cuts in subsidies, and regulatory issues could eclipse estimated manufacturing demand by quite a bit.

Investors ought be reminded, too, that a Memorandum of Understanding is not a signed agreement.
Read More > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Are Hot Dogs From Kraft Foods and Sara Lee Choking Risk For Kids?

A new policy statement from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), published in the February 22 online issue of Pediatrics, takes a closer look at preventing choking among children. Their startling find is on average, a child will die every 5 days in the United States from choking on food. Fear-mongering for political ends, or plain truth in advertising?

The AAP is now calling on food manufacturers of hot dogs and other high-risk foods to affix “choking hazard” labels to packaging, and urging that companies redirect some research and development expenses toward the redesign of foods, such as drafting new shapes, sizes, and textures less to get wedged in a kid’s passage airway.

Some hot dog brands, such as Oscar Mayer (Kraft Foods) or Ball Park Franks from Sara Lee, already have warning labels about choking. Not enough is the apparent sentiment vocalized by the policy paper’s lead author Gary Smith.

It turns out, though, that the AAP took that data from a paper almost thirty years old! Read more at BNET Food > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

First Solar Turns To New World for Solar Growth

In 2009, First Solar (FSLR-$105.90) generated almost 65 percent of its $2.06 billion in sales from German photovoltaic (PV) projects, from roof-top panels to arrays of solar panels on farms, according to its annual regulatory filing. In 2010, the cadmium-telluride (CdTe) thin-film module manufacturer will still derive about 40 percent to 50 percent of module sales from German customers, despite best efforts to open windows to other sunshine markets. Most of its business from Germany will be front-loaded, CEO Robert Gillette said on the fourth-quarter ending 2009 earnings call, to beat the planned June 1 feed- in subsidy cuts.

Contrary to optimism expressed by First Solar management on its earnings call, installation volume capacities in other European markets, such as France (12 percent of its business) or Italy (6 percent of sales), were too small to absorb lost mega-watt sales from Germany.

“For the big players, there is no real way around Germany, to be honest,” SES Research analyst Karsten von Blumenthal told Reuters.

First Solar expects to ramp up aggregate manufacturing capacity to 34 production lines by 2012, with annual worldwide production capacity of approximately 1.8 gigawatts. Longer-term performance could be hampered by obstacles in other markets outside Europe.

Continue Reading > ….

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.