Monday, February 02, 2015

Finding Opportunity in Crude Oil's Bust - Part 2

Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM-$7.51) is an E&P specializing in lower cost secondary recovery efforts.
  • Debt-Free Balance Sheet
  • 2P Reserves of 22.8 MMBOE (6/30/2014)
  • Development plan:  installation of recycle gas processing to recover methane and NGLs, and water-flood with deferred future CO2 injection in portion of Delhi recovery project.  Secondary recovery efforts could add  2.9 MMBOE to known 2P reserves

Enerplus Corporation (ERF-$8.97) / is an E&P with following exposure: 25% - Gas/ 75% - oil. US assets include: Williston Basin / No Dakota: 28,000 – 30,000BOE/day / 2013 2P Reserves: 131 MMBOE; Marcellus (natural gas) – NE PA: ~60% of 2015E natural gas volumes (190 – 230 MMcf/day)
  • Bank Credit Facility - $1 billion / $942M in unused capacity (Credit facility matures October 31, 2017)
  • 2015 est. Production: 105.5 MBOE/day [56% gas – 44% oil]
  • Change of $5.00/bbl WTI crude oil:  $42M = $0.20 (+/-)
  • Change of $0.50/Mcf NYMEX natural gas:  $28 = $0.14 (+/-)

Gastar Exploration Inc. (GST.PRA - $19.00) is a SPECULATIVE E&P play with big money coming in (such as Carl Icahn). GST.PRA is a 8.625% Series A Cumulative Preferred Security callable at $25 per share.
  • 1P Reserves: Appalachia - 55.5 MMBoe / Mid-Continent - 22.5 MMBoe
  • Liquids 46% of proved reserves
  • Active hedging program - currently hedged 86% of PDP oil production and 76% of PDP gas production for 2015(
  • First Mover Adv – Hunton Formation (OK) / ~155 MMBoe of 3P resource in Hunton and Stack Play(
  • Liquidity: Borrowing capacity: $191.6M / LT Debt: $314.7M Senior Secured Notes due 2018

MV Oil Trust (MVO-$14.82) is a royalty trust formed in 2006. The trust has oil & NG interests in approximately 1,000 producing oil and gas wells, located in the Mid-Continent region (KS & eastern CO).
  • The net profits interest will terminate on the later to occur of (1) June 30, 2026, or (2) the time when 14.4 MMBoe have been produced from the underlying properties and sold (which amount is the equivalent of 11.5 MMBoe in respect of the trust's right to receive 80% of the net proceeds from the underlying properties pursuant to the net profits interest)// As of December 31, 2013, cumulatively, since inception, the trust has received payment for approximately 5.5 MMBoe of the trust's 11.5 MMBoe interest.

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