Gold Mining Values in a Bear Market

Despite cuts to cap-ex and exploration, Citigroup data reveals that gold majors like Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), and Yamana Gold (AUY) are burning cash at all-in costs of $1,600/oz., 1,800/oz., and $2,000/oz., respectively – in part, due to overpayment for leases and acquisitions of marginal properties during the commodities bull market of the last decade.

Looking ahead, World Bank, Fitch Rating Agency and other commodity forecasters opine that gold prices will continue to trend lower, bottoming around $1,000/oz. by 2025. Ergo, the aforementioned miners and other peers with poor cost positions will likely need to shutter additional operations, reduce production and slash capita budgets to adjust to lower cash flow being generated in this new, lower pricing environment.

In addition, expect liquidity constraints to stress already weakened balance sheets (due to asset write-downs) and to increase borrowing costs as risks of loan covenant defaults increase – resulting in the suspension of remaining cash dividends, too. Nonetheless, for those investors willing to stomach residual risk, there are a few gold mining stocks with stable balance sheets and attendant all-in costs significantly lower than the industry average capable of paying healthy dividends in the current slow growth environment.

Read more at YCharts: Gold Stocks That Can Afford Their Dividends

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Prospects Not Terminal for Endocyte's Cancer Drug Vintafolide

Following an interim analysis, Endocyte (ECYT-$11.40) reported last Thursday that the independent Drug Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) advised investigators to tell non-small cell lung cancer patients enrolled in the TARGET study that vintafolide use in monotherapy was unlikely to prove superior to docetaxel in progression-free survival (PFS) at the termination of the study.

However, news that the DSMB observed the combo arm of the TARGET study (vintafolide & taxotere) was trending toward the statistical goal of a 50% improvement in PFS relative to the taxotere arm (and didn’t demonstrate any new safety concerns) ultimately could prove to be good tidings for Endocyte shareholders.

Read more at YCharts: Endocyte’s Plunge Ignores Drug’s $2.5B Potential

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Will Medivation PREVAIL in Prostate Cancer?

Medivation’s (MDVN-$57.57) senior management remains upbeat on growth prospects for the prostate cancer drug Xtandi. In fact, chief executive officer David Hung boasted to analysts on the second-quarter earnings call that Xtandi is “quickly becoming the leading therapy in the post-docetaxel market.”

However, Xtandi’s clinical advantages versus Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) competitor Zytiga – dosing without regard to timing of meals or concomitant steroid use and monthly monitoring, such as liver function testing – haven’t proven attractive enough to change physician prescribing habits. In fact, market data available through April continued to show Zytiga held a 57% share of the chemo-refractory mCRPC market, compared with Xtandi’s roughly 30% share.

Although physician enthusiasm for Xtandi remains high in the post-chemo setting mCRPC, a confluence of issues could prove problematic to Xtandi gaining any material ground against Zytiga. In particular, post-launch experience is showing that Zytiga’s approved labeling to be used in a broader clinical spectrum of prostate cancer and Xtandi’s aggressive cost (average wholesale price of $7,450 for a 30-day supply is roughly 28% more expensive than Zytiga) may hinder Xtandi’s reimbursement and uptake -- especially in economically-depressed countries in the EU, like France, Greece and Spain

Read More at YCharts: Uh Oh: IsThis Cancer Highflyer In Your Account?

 

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.