Forest Lab's Fortunes Tied to New Drugs

Forest Lab's (FRX-$39.91) management told analysts on its recent earning’s call that sales of next-generation products could grow 48% over fiscal 2013, adding incremental revenue of $1.32 billion in 2014. This optimism is founded on recent sales momentum exhibited by these newer drugs - such as Tudorza (aclidinium bromide inhaled powder) and Daliresp (roflumilast) for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - which posted year-on-year gains in the fourth quarter of 51.3% to $254.3 million..

Unfortunately, management has demonstrated an insouciant reticence when it comes to individual drug performance – as opposed to the aggregate: The antibiotic Teflaro, for example, launched back in March 2011, continues to underperform, recording anemic sales of just $13.1 million last quarter.

Continue reading at YCharts: Is There a Pill For That? Forest Lab's Iffy Pipeline

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

Online Ticketing Upstarts Challenge Live Nation's Concert Kingdom

Investors might want to rethink their enthusiasm for Live Nation (LYV-$13.78). To be sure, this new embrace of all-things digital has helped the company deliver on growth in ticket sales and operating results – ticketing profits have more than doubled since 2010, coming in at $122.8 million last year. But the live concert part of the equation continues to underperform:  The company makes little money at the door. Additionally, though ancillary net revenue per attendee at North American events rose 45 cents to $18.56 year-over-year, concert segment net losses increased another $15 million to $(120.1) million in 2012.

Although Live Nation is unmatched in its global reach – and has new technology that makes it cheaper to sell tickets – operating margins at its concert promotion’s segment could face further pressure as smaller rivals look to scale up and compete directly against the company in higher-margin electronic dance music (EDM), festival and arena-sized events. For example, online ticketing vendor Eventbrite offers software that helps event organizers cheaply manage all aspects of a concert or film-festival, from marketing and online sales to ticket purchases and payments. 

Continue Reading at YCharts: Live Nation up 36% YTD: But We've Got Bad News

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.

How Vulnerable Are Comstock Resources and Ultra Petroleum to Lower Energy Prices?

Given what might be peak pricing, it’s hard to fathom why certain natural gas companies have chosen not to lock in more contracted natural gas hedges. With the EIA forecasting an average price of $3.41 and $3.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, is the financial health of exploration companies with weak hedge books, such as Comstock Resources (CRK-$15.55) and Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL-$21.04) vulnerable to a reversal in energy prices? 

Continue Reading at YCharts: Who’s Toast if Natural Gas Prices Plunge Again? 

Editor David J Phillips does not hold a financial interest in any stocks mentioned in this article. The 10Q Detective has a Full Disclosure Policy.